Fight.

Image result for machine kills fascists

This land is our land.

With the resignation of Anthony Kennedy, you know the stakes. You know that abortion could soon be illegal in at least 33 states, if not nationwide. You know that we could see a return to the horrors of forced pregnancy or dangerous illegal procedures. You know this.

You know that the Supreme Court has in the last week solidified racial gerrymandering and tried to give a final death-blow to organized labor. You know they are marching lockstep with the GOP as they suppress votes and erase the gains of the Civil Rights movement in an effort to reinstate a new and even more inhuman Gilded Age.

We know that the foundations of America are crumbling, as a tacky authoritarian is coming into his own, his dim but on-point instincts pushing against the outlines of what he can do, expanding them. His Nitwit Nurembergs are getting sharper, more frequent, more blood-soaked and insane.

We know that a dangerous party has found its ultimate leader, a man with no respect for democracy, who can preeningly usher in everything they’ve fought for, because in his bones, he believes it. His pathologies and race hatreds match their goals, and his empty self-image as a great man matches their desire for a final plutocracy.

I feel despair and a sense of the bottom falling out. But also anger: white-hot, incandescent anger. And that anger has to turn into action.

If you’re like me, you sometimes don’t even know where to start. But there are place. The inimitable Amee Vanderpool has compiled a list, from volunteering for the DNC to marching to sending out postcards to voters (perfect for people who can’t do door-to-door or phonebanking).

(links in tweet go to other links for action)

Seriously, start today. We might not win, but this is the fight we have. You don’t get to choose the times you live in. You can only choose how you live in them.

Advertisements

Can Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Appeal To Democratic Base of White Suburban Republicans? Hmmm?

 

Image result for alexandria ocasio cortez

I don’t want to brag about my inside political knowledge, but I’ve been paying close attention to the meteoric rise of the new Democratic superstar since last night around 10 CST when I saw a text my buddy Brett sent reading “alexandria ocasio-cortez. get ready.”

I had assumed he was talking about a prospect for the Cubs or something, but a subsequent news alert let me know that he was referring to the Democratic Socialist who beat Dem leader Joe Crowley. As you probably know by now, the 28-yr-old progressive has a chance to be the youngest person ever elected to Congress, and has already shaken a party torn between its left flank and its centrist leadership. Indeed, as you are about to hear, a lot, the Democratic party has its own Tea Party, and is now just as radical as the Republicans.

Just a reminder, though, that what you are about to hear is all bullshit.

For the last couple of days, we’ve been having the Conversation about Civility and Decency. On the one end, the bulk of Democratic voters who don’t think that family separation is a good thing, and feel that those who are making it happen don’t deserve to hang out in polite society. On the other hand, you have leadership like Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer who are tripping over themselves to be the wise and civil heads in the room, criticizing Maxine Waters with gusto and performative dismay.

This has opened up, I think, a gap in the party. Although I did vote for Bernie, I’ve been generally sympathetic to Democratic leadership, who it should be remembered are essentially powerless right now. It should also be recognized that the Bernie wing of the party hasn’t really been successful in nominating candidates, and for all the white dude moaning, the actual base of the Democratic Party has been women, specifically black women and Latinas.

The energized “base” didn’t get a Democrat elected in Alabama; the actual base did.

So what do I mean by a gap? I mean that right now, the leadership seems disconnected. The actual base AND the supposed base are livid at the administration and regular people are wanting to stand up and do something. People who don’t fit into activist buckets have been in the streets. People who aren’t radicals are marching and organizing and voting. But the leadership, who have done good, seem intent on tamping that down to appeal to a mythical voter who is willing to vote against Donald Trump but only if we are super nice to him and don’t say anything too mean about him. It’s maddening.

(As a reminder, it is nice/maddening to remember that Donald Trump is always the dumbest guy in the room:

…should we…tell him?)

That’s where I think Unlikely Giant Slayer Millenial Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez fits in. Yes, there’ll be attacks about how we’re crazy, and the media will wring its hands over the party tipping over the edge, but fuck that.

She’s for gun control. So are most Americans.

She’s for immigration justice and the abolition of ICE. Most Dems support the latter and most Americans the former. 75% of Americans think immigration is a good thing, and 65% think it should be increased or kept at current levels. The slavering hatred of the Admin is out of step; not the DSA.

She’s for fighting climate change. That’s not exactly identity politics, unless you think it is pandering to Lunged-Americans.

She’s for regulating Wall Street, expanding housing rights, expanding Medicare protections, and for campaign finance reform. These are all, if not largely popular, pretty much down-the-line Democratic beliefs.

So where is she radical? Well, she believes strongly in LGBTQ+ rights, as do most Democrats, but all those letters might turn off some people who don’t believe in rights. But they’re not going to vote Democratic anyway. The assault weapon ban will pretty much turn away people who are already convinced that Democrats want to steal your guns so they can protect their pedophile rings.

And I don’t know, is ending private prisons radical? Is criminal justice reform? It wasn’t a few years ago; before Trump’s Law and Order tough-guy act, it was pretty bipartisan.

So yes: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez isn’t going to win votes in Steve King’s district, although, to be honest, she might. Her message of protecting workers and the working class can actually cut across political divides, and if she herself is not the answer*, the message is anything but a radical one.

(*Again, I hadn’t heard of her until last night, and neither had 90% of the people you hear analyzing the State of Our Politics tonight.)

That’s where the party should be. With the Supreme Court ruling in favor of racial gerrymandering, a minority party beholden to the rich is using anti-democratic means to hold onto power. The energy should be in candidates who offer a message of economic solidarity, but not milquetoast politeese. Minority candidates and women are particularly well-positioned to take advantage of this, since again, those are the real base of the party.

To be honest, I do sort of dread the attacks, and am not thrilled that she’s a Democratic Socialist, rather than just a Democrat. I don’t like the idea of the media talking about the Dems in disarray, but at the end of the day, so what. Dems keep winning, and the leadership might recognize that while the base is NOT Chapo Trap House, nor is it feeling particularly placid.

Candidates who can speak to the economic dislocation and rigged system without brosephy sneers and condescending attacks can win. Those who are willing to stand up to the grotesque stupidity of the Administration and its enablers can win. We should be running liberals in liberal districts, and purples like Doug Jones in less blue areas. But the message can be pretty similar.

Things aren’t good. They are very bad. But we can take it back and swing things again. That’s the lesson of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and anyone who thinks differently has something to sell you.

 

On Punching Up: Why “Civility” Is The Canard of the Powerful

Image result for sarah huckabee sanders

This is a professionally terrible person who helps rip families apart and orphans children for short-term political gain. Why are we even talking about being nice to her, for god’s sake

John Bolton, one of the intellectual architects of the Iraq War, is currently head of the National Security Council. Working for Trump is an exercise in daily humiliations, but is still a pretty good gig, which he got after a decade or so of well-paid TV and speech circuit work. It is certainly a better gig than being a live-in nurse for soldiers who have had their limbs blown off or their heads wrecked or their spines severed.

John Yoo, who made the legal case that turned America into a nation that tortures, is currently the Emanuel S. Heller Professor of Law at the University of California, Berkeley. I don’t know exactly what that position is, but I imagine it is significantly more cushy than, say, being an ash-covered mendicant traveling the country in sackcloth begging forgiveness.

Dick Cheney, who beside being evil was a remarkable failure, being the most powerful man in the country during two lost wars and a catastrophic recession, gets up to $75,000 a speech to talk about the leadership and the broad themes of history. Ari Fleischer is a talking head. Dana Pirino has had like 10 shows.

In other words, not a single member of the Bush administration, which at the very least deliberately overturned the Geneva Conventions, wrecked the lives of hundreds of innocents, and brutalized a nation into accepting torture, suffered any real legal or financial consequences for their actions. And they certainly didn’t suffer any social ones, at all.

That’s important to remember as we debate inanely about “civility” in the wake of both DHS Secretary Kristjen Neilsen and Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders being booed from and politely asked to leave from a restaurant, respectively.

By now you know the outlines of this. Official Washington is absolutely aghast that these women weren’t allowed to have their meals after a day spent separating children from their families and/or lying about it. Even the Washington Post, which has been a beacon of hard reporting in a toothless and truthless era, pearl-clutched itself into irrelevance with an official editorial begging for civility.

Obviously, the right has been livid about this, with performative cries of fascism and declarations that the Left is finally showing their true colors. It’s easy to point out the hypocrisy here: the party of “Lock Her Up!” and “Trump that bitch!” and “grab her by the pussy” and “fuck your feelings” and “Mexicans are rapists” and “Democrats want open borders to protect their gun-grabbing jihadist pedophile pizza slingers” is sad that other people are being mean.

But there is obviously more at play here than just hypocrisy. It’s very strategic hypocrisy, taking advantage of Democrat’s natural inclination toward compromise and obsequious grandstanding centrism to force apologies and throw us on our back feet. It’s part of the constant firehouse of lies and nonsense that is impossible to combat, the swirl of confusion that is the constant background music of our times, the Rites of Spring being played on a broken accordion, forever.

It’s that horrible music, and the Democrat’s natural tendency to quail, that can force Nancy Pelosi to condemn a true champion of the base and stand up for Sarah Huckabee Sanders because they know how to work the system.

Note: she didn’t call for harm to supporters, but more incivility against Trump administration officials, who at the very least work for a man who consistently calls Maxine Waters, and no one else, “low IQ”, a racially-charged slur, which Trump knows, which is why he keeps doing it, which is why it is outrageous for Pelosi to condemn Waters for god’s sake.

So why did Pelosi capitulate? It’s because she knows how the game works (and has probably internalized it so much that it is part of her, or she is part of it, or it is indistinguishable. It was so laughably obvious and predictable how our elite media and political class would react to an acting agent of incipient authoritarianism being asked to leave a restaurant. They’d call for the left and the Dems to be polite, and to treat Trump’s bullying fascism with “kindness”, because “that’s not who we are”. We can’t let our politics get in the way of decency!

Fuck that. Saying that “politics” shouldn’t matter is the rallying cry of the powerful, for whom politics has no real impact. Sarah Huckabee Sanders is participating in a program to permanently orphan children on behest of the American people. She’s helping the administration poison our air and water, sew discord and distrust everywhere, slander career law enforcement agents, and block any real chance at seeing how deeply Russia has infiltrated our politics.

She’s a face of a party who has now legally enshrined suppressing minority votes, thanks to a stolen Supreme Court seat appointed by a man who got a minority of votes.

Politics is real life, and really affects the lives of people who aren’t in the powerful class. That’s why the Even The Liberal Washington Post and commentators from “both sides of the aisle” are universally aghast at what is happening to administration officials. They are nearly as complicit, and don’t want to upset the rules of what for them is a very comfortable game.

But that’s not how it should be. If you think that we are at a very dangerous inflection point in American history, you can’t let the comfortable stay comfortable. If the powerful are still comfortable during times of evil, evil wins.

That’s one way to combat this. There may never be actual legal or financial disruptions for these people (although there also might be, fingers crossed). But there damn well should be social ones. You don’t get to enact cruelty during the day and then go out like nothing has happened. You changed clothes; you didn’t change skin. Actions, we’re always told, have consequences. It should for the powerful as well.

This isn’t a cry to harass any Trump voters, obviously. Literally no one is saying that. Argue, persuade, cut them off your Facebook feed, whatever. That’s a private decision. We’re saying that punching up is a duty. We’re saying is that the powerful should be held to account.  If they are, if their lives are made materially worse for their role in making other lives dramatically and irrevocably worse, maybe they’ll think twice. Maybe people won’t take jobs with brutal, authoritarian administrations. Maybe things will change.

And maybe not. The unique malevolent gravity of Donald Trump ensures that this administration won’t change its tone. But if its lackeys can’t eat in public anymore, if they are booed on the street and made to feel the weight of their cruel actions, maybe it will just be the fake king, wandering bloated down the empty hallways of the shadowed White House, mumbling nothings to the few ghouls who still hang around. And that, at least, might make a difference.

The Battle for al-Hudaydah Captures Yemen’s Imploding Tragedy

Screenshot (2)

The conflict in question is where all the buttons are bunched up. Image from yemen.liveuamap.com/

(Note: using transliteration used in the Times and elsewhere, though not really for any good reason)

Yesterday, after weeks of frantic negotiations and an increasing sense of dread, the coalition of the exiled San’a government and the remnants of the GCC launched an assault on the Houthi-led port city of al-Hudaydah, a city of 600,000 caught in the vise of the world’s most catastrophic human rights tragedy.

There is little doubt that this will be a brutal slog. The coalition is led ostensibly by Tariq Saleh, nephew of the late ex-President and an erstwhile ally of the Houthis (as in: until December). That he is now leading a city-ruining assault against those with which he so recently broke bread is not surprising. It fits in the long history of Yemeni politics and war in the immediate context of this conflict, which started when the Houthis tried to overthrow his uncle.

Of course, few really think that Tariq is calling all the shots. While he has led several thousand of his fighters up the coast, it is the UAE that demanded the Houthi’s leave the city, an ultimatum which went whooshing by at midnight, followed by the sounds of heavy guns and bombing runs.

So why is this city so important? Al-Jazeera captures the contradictions.

The Hudaida port is crucial for the flow of food supplies into a country that is on the brink of famine.

But Riyadh and Abu Dhabi maintain that the port is being used to smuggle weapons.

Both can be true, and almost certainly are (certainly the first one is, and few doubt the latter). And that’s really the problem. The battle for the city could wreck even the meagerest supplies that are preventing famine, but famine and disease are hardly being prevented whatsoever already.  Hudaydah is the primary port in the north; under the Houthis it remains one of Yemen’s poorest and most hungry provinces.

Expelling the Houthis will be a catastrophe, but their occupation of the province (and most of Yemen) has been catastrophic. While we focus on the US involvement and our complicity in Saudi and Emirati war crimes, we ignore that the Houthis are brutal and vicious, running and increasing gangster/theocrat rule, with lawless violence being a hallmark.

Indeed, reports from trusted reporters seem to show that there is ambiguity in Hudaydah about the coming conflict.

This negotiated plan is what had been offered in the past, but the Houthis declined. At this point, there seem to be few good options for success. Writing in the NYTimes, Gregory Johnsen says that right now, the only real option is a half-measure de-escalation.

Mr. Griffiths (UN Special Envoy) has put together a framework for peace negotiations, which was leaked to the press last week. A key component of that framework is disarmament, which would require the Houthis to surrender all their weapons, including ballistic missiles and artillery, except for light arms. But in an environment of such profound distrust, where weapons are equated with power, no one side will voluntarily surrender them.

Instead, Mr. Griffiths should push for transitional arms control. Unlike disarmament, which is an all-or-nothing affair, transitional arms control is gradual and allows for the slow building of trust by getting the warring parties to step back from the brink while maintaining control of their weapons should they feel threatened.

In exchange for getting Saudi Arabia and the Emirates to stop airstrikes, the Houthis would commit to placing their weapons under lock and key. Under such a scenario, the Saudis and Emiratis would still have access to their planes and the Houthis would keep the keys to their weapons depot.

That’s pretty much where we’re at. A hated occupier is being slowly forced out in a humanitarian nightmare by the parties that are absolutely complicit in the broader humanitarian nightmare, led by a former ally of the first group. The only chance to get people to stop killing each other is to convince them they will still be able to kill each other at a moment’s notice if things don’t work out.

I say the Houthis are an occupier because they are: the soldiers they use are from northern cities with no connection real connection to Hudaydah, and in the context of Yemeni politics, that makes it an occupation. It doesn’t matter that they control San’a. They are not “foreign”, but certainly don’t belong. They came out of their province and ran roughshod over the local population, the same way that Saleh did to both Sadah and Southern Yemen.

This is Yemen at the moment. A swirl of shifting, uncertain allegiances, a whole swath of the country controlled by an increasingly blood-thirsty and malevolent/incompetent occupying army, and being fought by a coalition that has zero concern for the local population, and is essentially their own occupying force.

The battle is just starting. The war is grinding on with no end in site. The humanitarian crisis is already unimaginable and will get worse. And the question of what Yemen is, or what it should be, or what the sides are actually fighting for, will continue to be murky and unanswered even as the smoke wafts away from ruined cities and the dead are wailingly buried in the ground.

“I Know A Lot About Airplanes”: The Mostly Pointless Abandonment of South Korea

Image result for trump kim

Donald Trump is objectively the much better person here. Weird, right? 

I’m not going to pretend to be an expert on North Korea, or East Asia at all. You’ve already seen a lot of pop-up experts the last few days, and will see a lot more today. (“What matters to Kim most of all is regime stability, Wolf.”)

I also certainly don’t want to pretend that what happened overnight was worse or comparable to nuclear war. It was much better! If I had to choose between a preening Donald Trump and the melting annihilation of human life, I’d choose the former, at least seven or eight times out of ten.

But let’s also not pretend that yesterday was anything more than preening. I can’t say for certain that this was a huge victory for Kim, or that the optics of him meeting with a world leader solidifed his standing in his country or around the world. That Donald Trump basically abdicated America’s historic alliances over the weekend undercuts that a bit, though I suppose Kim might be able to convince the North Korean media to portray it as a historic victory.

(Though to be honest, that doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. From what I understand, the North Korean propaganda machine portrays America as weak and decadent and crumbling, so why is meeting with its leader a victory? I know that contradiction is the heart of totalitarianism, but I’m still curious about how that circle is squared.)

This summit was optics, which is not nothing in international relations, but is also far from everything. You knew it was going to be optics when they announced that Trump was leaving a little early and that he only had 45 minutes of one-and-one scheduled. You knew it was optics when the Department of Energy wasn’t included in the summit. You knew it was optics, honestly, the second Trump got involved.

This isn’t how summits work. They don’t begin with the President off-handedly announcing he wants to meet. There is months and years of prep work, negotiations and agreements, painful discussions about language as both sides test and push limits. Then the leaders get together and wrangle over the end.

In a way, I get why Trump’s approach is appealing. He’ll cut through all that bluster and just get the job done because he’s a master negotiator. He’ll size Kim up within a minute and figure it out. That’s a fun thought! If you like Donald Trump, that sounds cool.

The problem is that Trump the actual human being has little to nothing in common with Trump the Image. He’s not a good negotiator, is wildly susceptible to flattery, and goes into talks with nothing more than half-baked notions he gets from half-watching Fox and Friends. None of this is an exaggeration. When he said he’s been preparing for these talks his whole life, he just means that he likes haggling with people. It also means he literally hasn’t been preparing at all.

He knew what he wanted out of this. He wanted Kim to say denuclearization, and as soon as he got that, he was gold. He could talk about Kim being a great and wonderful guy who “really loves his country.” And he got that. Throughout his press conference, which by Trump standards was relatively lucid, he talked about how this time Kim’s promise meant something because he “wants to get stuff done.”

Again though, I’m skeptical, because nothing in the signed documents indicates any different pressures or timetables than any other accord ever signed, or even North Korea’s official position (which is they truly and sincerely and why won’t you believe us don’t want nukes, but dream first of a nuke-free world, so you go first). Instead, Trump got a vague pledge and a can kicked down the road.

As Trump kept saying, though, this was just the beginning. But I don’t know. This is his chance to say something went great and then ignore it, and if Kim doesn’t follow through, shrug his shoulders and say he tried. It’s hard to take Trump’s pledges of follow-through seriously. All he does is promise something will happen down the road in order to claim victory, and then do it all again down the road.

He also got Kim to agree to return the remains of American POWs, which is certainly a good thing, but that’s also the kind of good-faith gesture that should be the prerequisite of any meeting.

And what did we give up? Well, for one thing, Trump continuously reiterated his desire to bring home all our troops from South Korea, which is, I guess, fine, except for two points. 1) Saying you really want to do something super badly is not exactly a common tool for a great negotiator, and 2) doing so just because Kim promises to denuclearize still leaves South Korea entirely vulnerable to NK’s conventional forces. Even before the regime went nuclear, the fear was that any conflict could kill tens or hundreds of thousands of people n Seoul just from artillery strikes alone.

Indeed, I think the big outcome of these talks was that Trump agreed to stop us military exercises with South Korea. Here’s the full transcript of that.

We have done exercises working with South Korea for a long time. We call them war games. I call them war games. They are tremendously expensive. The amount of money we spend on that is incredible. South Korea contributes, but not 100 percent which is a subject that we have to talk to them about also. That has to do with the military expense and also the trade. We actually have a new deal with South Korea. We have to talk to them. We have to talk to countries about treating us fairly. We pay for a big majority of them.

We fly in bombers from Guam. I said where do the bombers come from? Guam. Nearby. I said great. Where is nearby. Six and a half hours. That’s a long time for these big massive planes to be flying to South Korea to practice and drop bombs all over the place and go back to Guam. I know a lot about airplanes. Very expensive. I didn’t like it.

What I did say is and I think it is provocative. I have to tell you, Jennifer, it is a provocative situation. When I see that and you have a country right next door. Under the circumstances we are negotiating a comprehensive and complete deal. It is inappropriate to have war games. Number one, we save money. A lot. Number two, it is really something they very much appreciated.

I’m glad North Korea appreciated that! And I’m glad you gave us a deep dive into your tremendous knowledge about airplanes, to let us know that flying them is expensive. You know who wasn’t totally on-board with this plan? Our allies in South Korea, whose military didn’t know that you were canceling these. And neither did ours. 

US forces in Korea said they had not received updated guidance on military exercises.

“In coordination with our ROK [Republic of Korea] partners, we will continue with our current military posture until we receive updated guidance,” a spokesperson told Reuters

The South Korean military issued a statement to NBC News saying: “Regarding President Trump’s comment regarding ending of the combined military drills … we need to find out the exact meaning or intention behind his comments at this point.”

This is classic Trump. He’s been all rankled and wrinkly about having to pay for joint military exercises, because all he sees is money and not value, and has no understanding about how these things work or why we do these exercises. So Kim can just say “these are really expensive” and “we’d appreciate it if you stopped” while whispering about nuclearization, and Trump gave up the store.

By “gave up the store” here I mean he sold out our allies. This is a disaster for South Korea, and I think people are just realizing that now. He values Kim’s smiles more than Moon’s security. And you know who else loves that Trump looked at the price tag (though not the value) of exercises in the region and gave them up? China. So this is a huge victory for China and North Korea, and a loss for South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. You might recognize that as a general inversion of American policy.

But that’s what he’s been doing. In the press conference, he is asked about the G7, and goes off on Trudeau for paragraphs at a time (calling him “Justin”), and doing a play-by-play of his own imagined version of events. So to recap, he spent the last few days severing alliances with our friends and strengthening our rivals, if not openly advancing the interests of geopolitical enemies.

That’s why this whole thing struck me as sort of a farce. Obviously, anything Trump is involved in is at least partly farce. That’s part of why I wonder how much of a triumph this is for Kim: there was hardly more dignity in yesterday’s meeting than in his palling around with Rodman. Trump might have been elevated, but he’s still a tacky casino operator and reality show star.

But what really struck me as false and horrible was when a CNN anchor said that it was a victory for Kim to be “meeting with the leader of the free world.” When that leader openly sides with Russia and China over Canada and Germany and the UK, when that leader officially closes our doors to victims of domestic abuse and gang violence, when that leader tweets out praise for the Supreme Court allowing voter rolls to be purged, then he’s not the leader of the free world. He’s just a member of a much darker and crueler world. Maybe that’s why they got along so well.

 

The Ilisu Dam: Turkey, Iraq, and the Future of the Tigris

 

Image result for ilisu dam

Damn. Image from Global Water Blog

We interrupt the Daily Regreatening to bring news from Southeast Turkey, where the great rivers of yore are no longer yoked to nature

Turkey said Tuesday that Iraqis have nothing to fear from the filling of an upstream reservoir on the Tigris River, saying “sufficient quantities of water” would continue to flow to the neighboring country.

For decades now, in one of the slow-moving but earth-changing stories of our time, Turkey has been reinventing its power supply by building a series of dams and reservoirs along the ancient Tigris and Euphrates rivers, along which the first major civilizations in human history were watered and grown. This has made Iraq and Syria less than thrilled, needless to say.

The final dam, the Ilisu, has slowly started filling, after years of construction interrupted by local protests, international disputes, and Kurdish militancy (the three are not entirely unrelated). The reservoir won’t be completely filled for at least a year, but it is expected to drop the water level in the Tigris by 8 billion cubic meters, leaving it at 17 billion cubic meters.

I don’t know if that is enough (like, I literally have no idea). Iraq’s Minister of Water Resources says it will be fine, but then, I guess, he says a lot of things.

He said Iraq and Turkey reached a “fair” agreement whereby Turkey will release 75 percent of the river’s volume while keeping the rest to fill the dam over the next six months. He said the two sides are set to meet again on Nov. 1. However, when asked about it at the press conference, the Turkish ambassador denied any agreement had been reached.

That’s kind of awkward, and telling as well. Why would Turkey reach an agreement? An agreement means that both sides have power, and if Turkey were to break it, they’d be in the wrong. Without an agreement though, Turkey holds all the cards.

None of this is to say that Turkey won’t release “a sufficient amount of water”, a coldly clinical phrase which carries with it a sort of reluctant and patronizing oblige. It’s not actually in their best interest to have Iraq turn into a waterless hellscape, a nation of 37 million wracked by drought and finally broken. Turkey doesn’t need another Yemen on its border.

But…I mean, things change, man. Even if Erdogan’s government is 100% sincere about releasing a sufficient amount of water–and why wouldn’t you trust him??–who’s to say what the future could bring? Conflict between the nations could easily lead to a withholding. Climate change could make Turkey reluctant to give up any of the water it is storing for itself. Maybe Turkey would want Iraq to turn the vise a little more on its Kurdish population. Who knows?

Image result for ilisu dam map

It’s actually OK to make a Batman joke

No matter what, though, Turkey has already changed the water in the region through their projects. In a great interview with the UVA Darden Global Water Blog, Julia Harte of Reuters talks about what Turkey’s vast modernization projects have meant in the region.

Turkey’s hydroelectric dams have reportedly reduced water flow into Iraq and Syria by about 80 and 40 percent, respectively, since 1975. The Ilisu Dam is expected to open on December 31, 2017, but it will take several years for the 10.4 billion-cubic-meter reservoir to flood completely. When it has, Iraqi officials estimate it will reduce the downstream flow of the river by at least half, allowing more salty water to flood into the river from the Persian Gulf in southern Iraq.

Together with a severe drought that has afflicted the region for the past decade, this decline in the quantity and quality of Tigris River water is expected to strangle Iraqi agriculture and hobble the recovery of the Mesopotamian Marshes, vast wetlands in southern Iraq where Sumerian civilization began. The Arabs who live in the marshes were seen as security threats by Saddam Hussein, who accused them of sheltering Shi’ite rebels. He drained the marshes in the 1980s and 1990s by diverting the Tigris into a giant canal. Since the U.S. invasion, the marshes have been making a slow recovery, but the Ilisu Dam will place their survival in jeopardy once more, according to environmental scientists.

This has huge, regional-and-global changing impacts. Over the last 40 years, which is honestly nothing, the entire water ecosystem of three countries has entirely changed. It’s a vast experiment with real human lives at stake, and no one can really say how it will play out.

Dams and Damn Lies and Where Dams Lie

All of this gets to the insanity of national aspirations in a world built on geology. It’s maddening and impossible to think that a border that is drawn arbitrarily, based just on a war here or there or some dusty treaty or just because that’s where we decided, means that some people control the water, and some don’t. Water is real; borders are not. But if you are on one side of that border, if you are upstream, you make the decision.

The decision on what to do with water is true power politics, because it gets to the heart of what it is to be human. We all need water, and whoever controls the headwaters somehow gets to decide who is sated and who is thirsty.

We see this in North America, where the US has essentially cut off the flow of the Colorado River into Mexico. There are treaties to restore it, and technical experts have been working their best to stay away from the heated politics of the moment, and many (though not all) are working in good faith, but it essentially comes down to: we have the river, you can pound (and maybe eat) sand.

pet-2

Pictured: not a healthy delta

When you think of the history of the US and Mexico, and the stolen land, and the cheap and phony wars, and the racism and xenophobia that follows, and the idea that those sentiments and actions can control a river, you start to see the ridiculousness of it.

When you reflect on just how recent these activities were (about 170 years), and then think of how recent these enormous dams were built, and think about the endless power of the Colorado River, which over countless eons carved out the goddamn Grand Canyon, you see how absurd this whole thing is. Mexico and the United States? Eyeblinks. That border? Sand. The idea that one country “owns” the Colorado? Mind-boggling arrogance. An insult not just to nature, but to the very concept of time.

And dams, ultimately, remind us what time and human life really mean.

Le Deluge: The Past and The Future

One of the effects of a dam is that the reservoir built by the dam is, well, a reservoir, and therefore underwater. Anyone around there has to leave or drown. Towns get submerged, drowned in the depths. There’s something haunting and ghostly about the idea, full cities suddenly made into Atlantis, being eaten away by our attempts to control the very agents of their deliquesence.

But these are real lives that the slow flood will ruin. Harte estimates 25,000-30,000 people will be displaced, with one of the towns being a true gasping tragedy.

Hasankeyf is one of the towns along the Tigris that will be completely submerged by the Ilisu Dam. Unlike most of the other towns, however, Hasankeyf has been continuously inhabited for 12,000 years. From Neolithic settlements to medieval tombs and temples, the town is a living museum where some people alive today grew up in caves built into cliffs overlooking the Tigris. Archeologists are still discovering new artifacts in the town – the most recent Neolithic settlement was unearthed in September – and they estimate that most of Hasankeyf’s archeological sites will be flooded before they can be excavated.

But flooded they will be, and gone under will be that seemingly-endless chapter of human history, in which people lived thousands of years before we started to decide that civilization meant cities and borders and power.

That’s an inevitable side effect of dams, of course: the submergence of history. It happened when the Aswan High Dam flooded the site of the ancient and enormous Abu Simbel temples, forcing Egypt to pick them up and move them, block by block, away from the drowning waters.

It’s really the damnedest thing

It happens in the United States too. Many communities were drowned when the TVA filled the valleys, and the Glen Canyon Dam destroyed thousands of years of Native history and sacred sites under the waters of Lake Powell.

But flooding, when looked at this way, is inevitable. While changing the flow of a river demonstrates an awesome power, it also is a temporary and transient one. Those ancient sites are not so ancient. They only seem so because of our graspingly desperate misapprehension of Deep Time. The rivers will, ultimately, win.

The Ilisu will one day erode and burst. So will the Hoover and the Aswan. It’s not just that dams are faulty and sometimes, like with the Oroville, can’t handle the weather. It’s that they are impermanent. The Colorado carved out the Grand Canyon. It eroded mile-thick volcanic dams over a dozen times during the Pleistocene. It always wins.

No matter how responsible the government of Turkey is, it will one day fall. Human habituations will change. We might flee a region altogether, or disease may wipe out a huge chunk of the population. None of this may happen soon, but it will happen. That none of the megadams have burst yet doesn’t mean they won’t; it is just a reminder of how impossibly new an idea these actually are.

Humans will stop tending them, or lose the knowledge, or just leave altogether. It may be war, but most likely, it will just be time and its insistence. The water will start finding cracks, and will grow them a forceful laziness, and persistent path of least resistance. These towering structures, which need a word beyond Pharaonic, will weaken and crumble and burst, and the water will burst forth. Ancient cities onces submerged may be see in outlines, while existing cities, themselves now ancient, beaten and strangled by the floodtide.

And the rivers will run again, unconcerned. Looking downhill. Glimmering toward the shining sea.

 

 

 

Trump’s Dimwit Cruelty Is Key To Our Encroaching Authoritarianism

faerie-tale-1293845_960_720

Remember this guy? It’s less funny to me, now. 

Among certain citizen bloviators, myself among them, the idea that the modern GOP, embodied by Trump, is too stupid to pull off a genuine authoritarianism is a frequently-pulled-upon comfort blanket. The people in the White House are the Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight, led by a preening child who is terrified of genuine human thought. Maybe we’ll be lucky!

That idea is easy to understand when you see the actions of Paul Manafort, one of the few people tied to the campaign or the administration who is genuinely smart and a savvy operator. As we found out last night, he’s been acting…not super brightly.

Despite being under house arrest, with multiple ankle bracelets, and certainly under the watchful eye of the Special Counsel for conspiring to sell our election to Russia, he’s been contacting associates and asking them to lie about what happened. I’ll paraphrase the transcripts.

Hey, co-conspirator? Hey, it’s…Paul M. You know who- I’m on the news, and we did the Ukraine thing together. Anyway, I’m not really at liberty to talk, since I’m certainly being watched, but I’m really going to need you to lie about the collus…coolatta. (Wink!)(I mean the collusion). 

Smart as Manafort may be, he is also desperate and panicked. As Frank Foer put it in The Atlantic, he’s lost his cool 

Robert Mueller’s allegation that Manafort attempted to tamper with a witness permits us to peer inside Manafort’s mind, as it has functioned in a very different set of circumstances. When it comes to Manafort’s own deep problems, his moment of legal peril, he seems unable to muster strategic thinking. He has shown himself capable of profoundly dunderheaded miscalculations.

As Foer explains, Mueller knows everything. He’s got Rick Gates as a cooperating witness, and so he’s privy to all of Manafort’s dealings and contacts. He’s keeping tabs on everything. He know what’s up.

And that’s where our comfort has, at times, come in. That as Mueller gets closer, rolling up Manafort and maybe Kushner, Don Jr, etc, the rats will grow hungry and gnashingly desperate, terrified of every shadow. They’ll see the rest of their lives unspooling in a prison yard, and they’ll make more mistakes, turn on each other, blunder their way into confessions. God, I’m sweaty just thinking about it.

But then we remember that even when the powerful are idiots, they are, first and foremost, powerful.

This of course was briefly the story of the day when he tweeted it yesterday (yesterday? Jesus christ…). It’s hard to overstate what this means. He’s saying (with his lawyers, most notably Guiliani, confirming) that the President can pardon anyone, can stop any investigation into himself, and can do whatever he can to harass and discredit and law enforcement agency looking into his crimes. In other words: there are no laws to apply to him.

That’s dull and thuggish and not at all the work of a savvy player, but so what? If he’s willing to use the pardon simply to reward loyalty or protect himself, there are very few obstacles to stopping him. He doesn’t need to be smart. He just needs to be angry, and to not care at all about any norms or any decent behavior or anything beside his own impossibly fake tough-guy persona.

And as we see, this dim assumption of authority isn’t an obstacle to his success. Indeed, both pragmatically and emotionally, it is the source of his power.

Trump is the GOP

While his assertion of Presidential perogative is almost certainly untrue, and absolutely insane, and genuinely terrifying. it almost doesn’t matter. If the President pardons himself, I don’t think anyone knows what will happen. Even if the GOP decides to impeach him, would he even leave? What’s the mechanism for forcibly removing a President?

And let’s be clear: the GOP won’t impeach him.

Image result for trump approval republican voters 500 day

When this “own party” poll came out yesterday, it was solidified for many on the commentariat that the GOP was too scared to go against him for fear of losing the base. And that’s certainly true for some of them. Some of them may not like Trump, but they are willing to play ball to save their own skins.

But really, that’s mostly bullshit. Many of them like Trump because he is willing to do whatever the GOP wants, both for reasons of what passes for his ideology, and because his own pathologies, weaknesses, and vanities (which is to say: his sum total) perfectly align with GOP goals.

Sure, there are some variations, like his obsession with tariffs, but those are few and far between. There is a general policy alignment, but more than that, there is deep-seated cruelty and meanness of spirit, which is the animating principle of today’s GOP.

As an example, let’s look at Kris Kobach, last seen failing entirely to suppress the vote nationwide simply because he didn’t know the first thing about the law. This man, whose entire career has been based around the goal of not letting poor people or minorities vote (that’s no exaggeration), is now running for governor of Kansas. And he has a great idea for how to do that: being the world’s biggest asshole.

Image result for kobach parade gun

At a parade

Yup…he’s riding around a parade with a big ol’ gun strapped to his jeep, because he’s a genuine tough guy who just accidentally never served. Needless to say, this upset some people, who were not thrilled about seeing a gun at a parade, on account of our citizens, especially students, are frequently massacred.

But Kobach was ready for that. He was ready to pounce that it was a FAKE GUN and that he was TRIGGERING THE SNOWFLAKES who HATE THE 2ND ADMENDMENT. I’m not kidding. As the KC Star explains in a fantastic, biting editorial:

Kansas gubernatorial candidate Kris Kobach wants us to be very, very angry over his weekend parade appearance with a replica of a machine gun. That’s because he hopes Kansan Republicans will delight in that anger and revel in the idea that he’s triggering the “snowflakes.”

In a fundraising email on Monday, the Republican secretary of state bragged about the reaction to his appearance alongside what only looked like a big gun in Saturday’s Old Shawnee Days parade: “Within seconds of the parade being over, liberals started losing their minds … But the fact is, the only reason why these ‘tolerant’ left snowflakes get so upset over even the sight of me is because they know I will not back down in my defense of the Second Amendment.”

Kobach apparently does need it, though. His campaign couldn’t wait to put out a statement deriding “those who use the excuse of school violence to restrict the right to bear arms.”

There’s a hell of a lot going on here, starting with the language of the internet, in which Kobach, an ostensible grownup, reflects the only language that matters on the right: keyword incantations and barely-literate trollery.

(As for the gun being fake, he’s lucky he wasn’t a black man in a Wal-Mart or a 13-yr-old kid in a playground…)

Obviously, trolling was the only point of this. He wanted us to get upset over his replica gun, so that he could talk about how we’re…intolerant of guns. Think about it: he wanted us to be upset over making people think that a weapon of death was coming down their street so that he could sneer about “the excuse of school violence”, as if that’s not a hideous wailing national tragedy. As if it is something to poke fun at.

And that’s the point: the GOP has been taken over entirely by this wanton cruelty, by this delight and demeaning and belittling (while complaining the whole while that the Ivy League professors are snobby jerks). It’s been an inevitable product of 40+ years of policy, a spreading meanness that mutates into contempt for decency.

Trump’s Tacky Eagles Stunt Is Anything But Foolish

That’s why Trump isn’t an anomaly, but a culmination. It’s why the GOP isn’t going to impeach him or stop him. He enables their success by supporting voter suppression. His authoritarianism is what a minority party needs to stay in power. They are a far-right party aligned with far-right parties around the globe, and democracy is an afterthought, a nicety to be gestured at while the real work of plutocratic looting gets done.

Some, like the American Ambassador to Germany, have stopped pretending to be anything other than a part of a growing anti-democratic right-wing movement. And while we think Trump is different, because he’s dumber, that’s not the case. He doesn’t need to be smart. His small-fisted sense of patriotism is enough.

His statement disinviting the Eagles to the White House, simply because a  lot of them wouldn’t come, is proof-positive of that.

Image result for trump eagles statement

Obviously, this is petty and stupid and foolish. For one thing, the Eagles players didn’t kneel during the anthem this season (despite what Fox News grossly pretended). What happened is that fewer than 10 players wanted to go (some reports have it at 3 or 4, probably depending on if you count Riley Cooper as 3 or 4 people), and so Trump cancelled it rather than have it reflect poorly on him.

But that wasn’t enough, of course. They didn’t want to come because they disagree with “their President” (and has any POTUS ever used a term so paternal and possessive?) about something that never happened, and so are essentially unpatriotic. It’s dishonest about the protests, dishonest about the reasons the Eagles weren’t coming, and dishonest about their motivations.

It’s wholly stupid and entirely false, a child’s idea of what patriotism is and a moron’s notion of revenge. It’s a jumble of brass bands and barely-mouthed incantations and symbols that the man calling for them doesn’t even understand. It’s an idiot’s path, designed entirely to rile up the base about angry blacks and ungrateful traitors and spoiled football players who hate the troops and the country by dint of disagreeing with the President.

If you think Trump’s brand of authoritarianism is too stupid to work, you’re wrong. If you think it is too cruel and punitive and obviously histrionic to take hold here, you’re wrong. You have a party that supports him because they revel in the onslaught of cruelties, they power of totems, the both fevered and dull recitation of buzzwords, and the slow stripping away of representative democracy.

They support Trump because of everything he is. We’re in extremely dangerous days, and the fact that they are so dumb and tacky and vulgar isn’t a cause for optimism: it’s a sign of the stompingly gray future to come.

 

NOTE: IT DOESN’T HAVE TO COME. This is an all-hands-on-deck election year. Don’t just vote, volunteer. Get involved. Democracy relies on everyday engagement.